Bob CollinsI probably won’t go blow by blow with every state and every major event this evening. Let’s face it: There are thousands of places to get that. I’ll be looking — or trying to look — on the edges of the election results for interesting patterns etc.
So I’m hoping you’ll join in via the comments section with your observations about things you find odd or interesting, but are somewhat underneath the radar.
Many of you will be reading this on Wednesday. So… shhhh… don’t tell me who won and give it away.
7 p.m. – Now closing, AL, CT, DE, FL, IL, ME, MD, MA, MS, MO, NH, NJ, OK, PA, TN, DC. Florida and Pennsylvania. No doubt CNN will call the state within seconds and if McCain loses Pennsylvania, the election’s over.
But the self-imposed media reform after the 2000 debacle lasted exactly one election cycle — 2004. The big folks are back to calling states based on exit polling which, again, assumes that people talking to the pollsters are telling the truth, and the science is correct.
7:04 p.m. – NPR has just called CT, DE, DC, IL, ME, MD, MA, NH, NJ & PA for Obama according to an NPR person on Twitter. The NPR Web site, however, appears to be down. Major fail, NPR.
7:08 p.m. – NewsHour calls Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey for Obama. This is significant. It’s the public broadcasters jumping the gun this election.
7:10 p.m. – PBS site is also down now. Good thing nobody’s running a pledge drive next week. The MPR site? Up and running smoothly, thank you very much, although we don’t call elections or states.
7:14 p.m. – Did linking a candidate with President Bush work for Dems? Not so much. According to exit polling, half of voters said McCain would continue policies of President Bush, but 7 of 10 disapproved of the policies.
7:18 p.m. – Forty-two minutes until the polls close in Minnesota. After president and Senate, I suppose most eyes are focused on the 6th District. History is not on Elwyn Tinklenberg’s side. No person named Elwyn has ever been elected (although I’m not sure anyone named Elwyn has ever run. However, there was a Selwyn. Sel Bowman represented Massachusetts in the 1840s. Michele Bachmann was the first Michele (or Michelle) elected to Congress.
Oh, nobody named Ashwin has ever been elected to Congress either.
7:30 p.m. – What’s behind the vote so far. People don’t think they’re better off than four years ago, according to the Wall St. Journal analysis of exit polls. Which makes me wonder: Why don’t more challengers ask that simple question anymore?
7:32 p.m. – New Hampshire goes to Obama. What happened to the formerly rock-red state? It attracted people from ultra-blue Massachusetts to come live there. Here’s a nice spreadsheet in the Manchester Union Leader that documents the changin’ times in the Granite state.
7:37 p.m. – More change. Zogby’s telephone poll shows 78% of Latino likely voters supporting Democratic candidate Barack Obama and 13% supporting Republican John McCain in the new Univision/Reuters/Zogby International survey.”
Just a few years ago, Republicans thought Hispanics were the new base, figuring they were heavily Catholic and would align with the GOP on social issues. That was the conventional spin, anyway. But last December, a Pew survey showed, Hispanics have been gravitating to the Democratic Party since at least 1999.
7:40 p.m. – CNN declares Pennsylvania goes to Obama. So that’s it, then. News Cut declares Sen. Obama the new president and Ohio is now positioned as the likely coup de grace. Whatever. It’s 5:40 in California.
“We can’t stress how important this is for Sen. Obama,” Wolf Blitzer said. That’s code for “this baby’s over but we can’t tell you that.”
8 p.m. – CNN says MN, RI, MI Wisc and NY go to Obama.
8:03 p.m. Exit polls show race is not a factor in the presidential vote, but age is. So is ageism the new racism.
In Mississippi, just to use it as a lab rate, 82% of whites are going for McCain, according to exit polls. Ninety-nine person of African Americans went with Obama.
8:07 p.m. – Have you noticed the trend, yet? The vote for Obama at the top of most states’ tickets, are holding as you work your way down the ticket. If that holds in Minnesota, Al Franken will defeat Norm Coleman, and the 3rd District open seat could go to a Democrat. Right now, only John Kline in the 2nd District looks like a safe GOP seat.
8:11 p.m. – The election is coming down to one issue: The economy. Just as 2004 came down to one issue: Iraq.
8:14 p.m. – I haven’t seen the final exit polls but through Midday Coleman wasn’t winning a GOP stronghold (men – he was splitting them with Franken) and he was trailing the suburbs, in rural Minnesota, and in the cities. But isn’t there an old adage that Republicans vote late in the day?
8:22 p.m. – Final exit poll numbers suggest a good night for Al Franken.
8:24 p.m. – Exit polling in Minnesota – the presidential race:
>> Obama easily won both the male and female vote
>> Those over 65 went for Obama by a 2-to-1 margin
>> Most people made up their mond before September
>> The economy was the issue.
>> Self-described moderates went for Obama 63-to-35 percent
>> Obama did better with white Democrats than McCain did with white Republicans
>> Evangelicals went with McCain by a 60-to-38 percent margin. White Protestants went with Obama 67-to-30 percent.
>> People making $200,000 or more went with Obama 58 to 41.
>> 80% of those surveyed said both were qualified to lead.
>> Barkley pulled from Coleman more than Franken.
>> Obama won in the suburbs, the city and rural Minnesota.
8:39 p.m. – Ohio goes Obama, McCain “party” turned off the TVs. OK, the presidential contest is over, let’s turn to the Minnesota Legislature, congressional and Senate races.
8:53 p.m. State results now streaming in. Bachmann holds 3-percent lead over Tinklenberg with 12% of the vote in. The Independent candidate — not even endorsed by his own party — is running surprisingly strong. Details here.
8:59 p.m. – Early returns seem to suggest suburban DFLers — perhaps the most vulnerable DFLers are running strong. There’s some serious coattails being clung to tonight.
10 p.m. – CNN projects Obama. Gutsy call.
10:18 p.m. – Sen. John McCain makes his concession speech. It is graceful, although the audience booed at the name Barack Obama. Is it OK for America now to relax and thank McCain for his service? Is it possible for a country to coalesce around its new president?
10:32 p.m. – Norm Coleman with a very slight lead over Al Franken at this hour, doing much better than the exit polls had suggested. Shades of Tim Pawlenty vs. Mike Hatch. But few of the votes seem to be coming from the Iron Range so far and a lot of them are coming from the 6th, which is strong Coleman territory.
10:58 p.m. – It’s two minutes from being tomorrow on the East Coast. Barack Obama makes his acceptance speech. I didn’t hear boos at the mention of John McCain, but it’s easier being gracious in victory than in defeat for supporters and opponents.
He invokes Martin Luther King Jr. by saying “we will get there.”
11:12 p.m. – Mr. President, now that you’re elected, will you be sending your children to public or private school in Washington? Hey, we might as well get the transition underway here.
11:25 p.m. – Michele Bachmann has padded her lead as Bob Anderson up his percentage to close to 11 percent. Is there an IP backlash coming?
11:29 p.m. New round of exit polling. Franken 44% Coleman 40% Barkley 15%. That’s a dead-ringer for the last few polls. There’s a 4% margin of error so there’s your dead heat. We’ll still be at it in the morning on this race.
12:47 a.m. — The audio encoding system at MPR is hosed up so I can’t get the archive of McCain’s and Obama’s speeches tonight. Here’s the text of McCain’s
Thank you. Thank you, my friends. Thank you for coming here on this beautiful Arizona evening.
My friends, we have — we have come to the end of a long journey. The American people have spoken, and they have spoken clearly.
A little while ago, I had the honor of calling Senator Barack Obama to congratulate him.
(BOOING)
Please.
To congratulate him on being elected the next president of the country that we both love.
In a contest as long and difficult as this campaign has been, his success alone commands my respect for his ability and perseverance. But that he managed to do so by inspiring the hopes of so many millions of Americans who had once wrongly believed that they had little at stake or little influence in the election of an American president is something I deeply admire and commend him for achieving.
This is an historic election, and I recognize the special significance it has for African-Americans and for the special pride that must be theirs tonight.
I’ve always believed that America offers opportunities to all who have the industry and will to seize it. Senator Obama believes that, too.
But we both recognize that, though we have come a long way from the old injustices that once stained our nation’s reputation and denied some Americans the full blessings of American citizenship, the memory of them still had the power to wound.
A century ago, President Theodore Roosevelt’s invitation of Booker T. Washington to dine at the White House was taken as an outrage in many quarters.
America today is a world away from the cruel and frightful bigotry of that time. There is no better evidence of this than the election of an African-American to the presidency of the United States.
Let there be no reason now … Let there be no reason now for any American to fail to cherish their citizenship in this, the greatest nation on Earth.
Senator Obama has achieved a great thing for himself and for his country. I applaud him for it, and offer him my sincere sympathy that his beloved grandmother did not live to see this day. Though our faith assures us she is at rest in the presence of her creator and so very proud of the good man she helped raise.
Senator Obama and I have had and argued our differences, and he has prevailed. No doubt many of those differences remain.
These are difficult times for our country. And I pledge to him tonight to do all in my power to help him lead us through the many challenges we face.
I urge all Americans … I urge all Americans who supported me to join me in not just congratulating him, but offering our next president our good will and earnest effort to find ways to come together to find the necessary compromises to bridge our differences and help restore our prosperity, defend our security in a dangerous world, and leave our children and grandchildren a stronger, better country than we inherited.
Whatever our differences, we are fellow Americans. And please believe me when I say no association has ever meant more to me than that.
It is natural. It’s natural, tonight, to feel some disappointment. But tomorrow, we must move beyond it and work together to get our country moving again.
We fought — we fought as hard as we could. And though we feel short, the failure is mine, not yours.
AUDIENCE: No!
MCCAIN: I am so…
AUDIENCE: (CHANTING)
MCCAIN: I am so deeply grateful to all of you for the great honor of your support and for all you have done for me. I wish the outcome had been different, my friends.
AUDIENCE MEMBER: We do, too (OFF-MIKE)
MCCAIN: The road was a difficult one from the outset, but your support and friendship never wavered. I cannot adequately express how deeply indebted I am to you.
I’m especially grateful to my wife, Cindy, my children, my dear mother … my dear mother and all my family, and to the many old and dear friends who have stood by my side through the many ups and downs of this long campaign.
I have always been a fortunate man, and never more so for the love and encouragement you have given me.
You know, campaigns are often harder on a candidate’s family than on the candidate, and that’s been true in this campaign.
All I can offer in compensation is my love and gratitude and the promise of more peaceful years ahead.
I am also — I am also, of course, very thankful to Governor Sarah Palin, one of the best campaigners I’ve ever seen … one of the best campaigners I have ever seen, and an impressive new voice in our party for reform and the principles that have always been our greatest strength … her husband Todd and their five beautiful children … for their tireless dedication to our cause, and the courage and grace they showed in the rough and tumble of a presidential campaign.
We can all look forward with great interest to her future service to Alaska, the Republican Party and our country.
To all my campaign comrades, from Rick Davis and Steve Schmidt and Mark Salter, to every last volunteer who fought so hard and valiantly, month after month, in what at times seemed to be the most challenged campaign in modern times, thank you so much. A lost election will never mean more to me than the privilege of your faith and friendship.
I don’t know — I don’t know what more we could have done to try to win this election. I’ll leave that to others to determine. Every candidate makes mistakes, and I’m sure I made my share of them. But I won’t spend a moment of the future regretting what might have been.
This campaign was and will remain the great honor of my life, and my heart is filled with nothing but gratitude for the experience and to the American people for giving me a fair hearing before deciding that Senator Obama and my old friend Senator Joe Biden should have the honor of leading us for the next four years.
(BOOING)
Please. Please.
I would not — I would not be an American worthy of the name should I regret a fate that has allowed me the extraordinary privilege of serving this country for a half a century.
Today, I was a candidate for the highest office in the country I love so much. And tonight, I remain her servant. That is blessing enough for anyone, and I thank the people of Arizona for it.
AUDIENCE: USA. USA. USA. USA.
MCCAIN: Tonight — tonight, more than any night, I hold in my heart nothing but love for this country and for all its citizens, whether they supported me or Senator Obama — whether they supported me or Senator Obama.
I wish Godspeed to the man who was my former opponent and will be my president. And I call on all Americans, as I have often in this campaign, to not despair of our present difficulties, but to believe, always, in the promise and greatness of America, because nothing is inevitable here.
Americans never quit. We never surrender.
We never hide from history. We make history.
Thank you, and God bless you, and God bless America. Thank you all very much.
12:51 a.m. – Elwyn Tinklenberg has conceded to Michele Bachmann.
Ashwin Madia has conceded to Erik Paulsen. Bottom line? No change in the Minnesota congressional representation. No change in the makeup of the Minnesota House and, unless Al Franken can make up ground on the Iron Range, no change in the Senate.
12:58 a.m. – Here’s the text of Obama’s speech
If there is anyone out there who still doubts that America is a place where all things are possible; who still wonders if the dream of our founders is alive in our time; who still questions the power of our democracy, tonight is your answer.
It’s the answer told by lines that stretched around schools and churches in numbers this nation has never seen; by people who waited three hours and four hours, many for the very first time in their lives, because they believed that this time must be different; that their voice could
be that difference.
It’s the answer spoken by young and old, rich and poor, Democrat and Republican, black, white, Latino, Asian, Native American, gay, straight, disabled and not disabled – Americans who sent a message to the world that we have never been a collection of Red States and Blue States: we are, and always will be, the United States of America.
It’s the answer that led those who have been told for so long by so many to be cynical, and fearful, and doubtful of what we can achieve to put their hands on the arc of history and bend it once more toward the hope of a better day.
It’s been a long time coming, but tonight, because of what we did on this day, in this election, at this defining moment, change has come to America.
I just received a very gracious call from Senator McCain. He fought long and hard in this campaign, and he’s fought even longer and harder for the country he loves. He has endured sacrifices for America that most of us cannot begin to imagine, and we are better off for the service rendered by this brave and selfless leader. I congratulate him and Governor Palin for all they have achieved, and I look forward to working with them to renew this nation’s promise in the months ahead.
I want to thank my partner in this journey, a man who campaigned from his heart and spoke for the men and women he grew up with on the streets of Scranton and rode with on that train home to Delaware, the Vice President-elect of the United States, Joe Biden.
I would not be standing here tonight without the unyielding support of my best friend for the last sixteen years, the rock of our family and the love of my life, our nation’s next First Lady, Michelle Obama.
Sasha and Malia, I love you both so much, and you have earned the new puppy that’s coming with us to the White House. And while she’s no longer with us, I know my grandmother is watching, along with the family that made me who I am. I miss them tonight, and know that my debt to them is beyond measure.
To my campaign manager David Plouffe, my chief strategist David Axelrod, and the best campaign team ever assembled in the history of politics – you made this happen, and I am forever grateful for what you’ve sacrificed to get it done.
But above all, I will never forget who this victory truly belongs to – it belongs to you.
I was never the likeliest candidate for this office. We didn’t start with much money or many endorsements. Our campaign was not hatched in the halls of Washington – it began in the backyards of Des Moines and the living rooms of Concord and the front porches of Charleston.
It was built by working men and women who dug into what little savings they had to give five dollars and ten dollars and twenty dollars to this cause. It grew strength from the young people who rejected the myth of their generation’s apathy; who left their homes and their families for jobs that offered little pay and less sleep; from the not-so-young people who braved the bitter cold and scorching heat to knock on the doors of perfect strangers; from the millions of Americans who volunteered, and organized, and proved that more than two centuries later, a government of the people, by the people and for the people has
not perished from this Earth. This is your victory.
I know you didn’t do this just to win an election and I know you didn’t do it for me. You did it because you understand the enormity of the task that lies ahead. For even as we celebrate tonight, we know the challenges that tomorrow will bring are the greatest of our lifetime – two wars, a planet in peril, the worst financial crisis in a century.
Even as we stand here tonight, we know there are brave Americans waking up in the deserts of Iraq and the mountains of Afghanistan to risk their lives for us. There are mothers and fathers who will lie awake after their children fall asleep and wonder how they’ll make the mortgage, or pay their doctor’s bills, or save enough for college. There is new energy to harness and new jobs to be created; new schools to build and threats to meet and alliances to repair.
The road ahead will be long. Our climb will be steep. We may not get there in one year or even one term, but America – I have never been more hopeful than I am tonight that we will get there. I promise you – we as a people will get there.
There will be setbacks and false starts. There are many who won’t agree with every decision or policy I make as President, and we know that government can’t solve every problem. But I will always be honest with you about the challenges we face. I will listen to you, especially when we disagree. And above all, I will ask you join in the work of remaking this nation the only way it’s been done in America for two-hundred and twenty-one years – block by block, brick by brick, calloused hand by calloused hand.
What began twenty-one months ago in the depths of winter must not end on this autumn night. This victory alone is not the change we seek – it is only the chance for us to make that change. And that cannot happen if we go back to the way things were. It cannot happen without you.
So let us summon a new spirit of patriotism; of service and responsibility where each of us resolves to pitch in and work harder and look after not only ourselves, but each other. Let us remember that if this financial crisis taught us anything, it’s that we cannot have a thriving Wall Street while Main Street suffers – in this country, we rise or fall as one nation; as one people.
Let us resist the temptation to fall back on the same partisanship and pettiness and immaturity that has poisoned our politics for so long.
Let us remember that it was a man from this state who first carried the banner of the Republican Party to the White House – a party founded on the values of self-reliance, individual liberty, and national unity.
Those are values we all share, and while the Democratic Party has won a great victory tonight, we do so with a measure of humility and determination to heal the divides that have held back our progress. As Lincoln said to a nation far more divided than ours, “We are not enemies, but friends…though passion may have strained it must not break our bonds of affection.” And to those Americans whose support I have yet to earn – I may not have won your vote, but I hear your voices, I need your help, and I will be your President too.
And to all those watching tonight from beyond our shores, from parliaments and palaces to those who are huddled around radios in the forgotten corners of our world – our stories are singular, but our destiny is shared, and a new dawn of American leadership is at hand. To those who would tear this world down – we will defeat you. To those who seek peace and security – we support you. And to all those who have wondered if America’s beacon still burns as bright – tonight we proved once more that the true strength of our nation comes not from our the might of our arms or the scale of our wealth, but from the enduring power of our ideals: democracy, liberty, opportunity, and unyielding
hope.
For that is the true genius of America – that America can change. Our union can be perfected. And what we have already achieved gives us hope for what we can and must achieve tomorrow.
This election had many firsts and many stories that will be told for generations. But one that’s on my mind tonight is about a woman who cast her ballot in Atlanta. She’s a lot like the millions of others who stood in line to make their voice heard in this election except for one thing – Ann Nixon Cooper is 106 years old.
She was born just a generation past slavery; a time when there were no cars on the road or planes in the sky; when someone like her couldn’t vote for two reasons – because she was a woman and because of the color of her skin.
And tonight, I think about all that she’s seen throughout her century in America – the heartache and the hope; the struggle and the progress; the times we were told that we can’t, and the people who pressed on with that American creed: Yes we can.
At a time when women’s voices were silenced and their hopes dismissed, she lived to see them stand up and speak out and reach for the ballot.
Yes we can.
When there was despair in the dust bowl and depression across the land, she saw a nation conquer fear itself with a New Deal, new jobs and a new sense of common purpose. Yes we can.
When the bombs fell on our harbor and tyranny threatened the world, she was there to witness a generation rise to greatness and a democracy was saved. Yes we can.
She was there for the buses in Montgomery, the hoses in Birmingham, a bridge in Selma, and a preacher from Atlanta who told a people that “We Shall Overcome.” Yes we can.
A man touched down on the moon, a wall came down in Berlin, a world was connected by our own science and imagination. And this year, in this election, she touched her finger to a screen, and cast her vote, because after 106 years in America, through the best of times and the darkest of hours, she knows how America can change. Yes we can.
America, we have come so far. We have seen so much. But there is so much more to do. So tonight, let us ask ourselves – if our children should live to see the next century; if my daughters should be so lucky to live as long as Ann Nixon Cooper, what change will they see? What progress will we have made?
This is our chance to answer that call. This is our moment. This is our time – to put our people back to work and open doors of opportunity for our kids; to restore prosperity and promote the cause of peace; to reclaim the American Dream and reaffirm that fundamental truth – that out of many, we are one; that while we breathe, we hope, and where we are met with cynicism, and doubt, and those who tell us that we can’t, we will respond with that timeless creed that sums up the spirit of a
people:
Yes We Can. Thank you, God bless you, and may God Bless the United States of America.
What was Minnesota saying tonight? On a national level: Change. On a local level: Status quo.
Goodnight.
